By election live: Labour takes momentous wins in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire - full results

Good morning and welcome to our live blog of the two key by-elections being held today. Polls have opened in both Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, Staffordshire.

The Conservatives will be hoping to hold on to both, which used to be very safe Tory seats with majorities of more than 19,000 in 2019. Labour are the bookies favourites to win Tamworth, while the Tories are odds on in Mid Bedfordshire.

Send any comments, gossip or pictures of dogs at polling stations to [email protected].

A few key timings for any political anoraks planning on staying up the whole night:

Outspoken Tory Nadine Dorries finally quit as an MP at the end of August, after previously saying in June that she would resign after not getting a peerage. Before resigning, Dorries had not spoken in the House of Commons for more than a year and had only mentioned her constituency name once in the chamber since the 2019 election.

She had also got rid of her constituency office. Her daughter was employed as her senior parliamentary assistant, being paid between £45,000 and £49,999 a year. When NationalWorld visited her constituency, almost everyone we spoke to said they wanted Dorries to resign. One woman said: “It’s an illusion we have an MP - she doesn’t exist as far as we can tell."

While Roger Kennedy, 75, told NationalWorld that he voted for Dorries at the last election, but he would not be voting Conservative again. “She is definitely absent,” he told NationalWorld. “I’m very disappointed with the fact she’s not come back into the local community and acted for the local community.”

He added: “She’s done a lot of things in the past which I’ve not agreed with. Although I voted for her, I have now changed my allegiance - I will not be voting in that way again. It would be nice to have personal representation, a lot more to do with the community.”

Dorries won a majority of 24,664 in the last election, but this is seen as a three-way race between the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems. If an opposition party won, it would be the biggest majority ever overturned in a by-election

The Tamworth by-election has been called after a scandal which ultimately brought the downfall of Boris Johnson's government. Chris Pincher, Tamworth's Tory MP, resigned as deputy chief whip in August 2022 after drunkenly groping two men in the Carlton Club.

After the scandal erupted, more allegations against Pincher emerged. Johnson was briefed “in person” about a previous investigation into the conduct of Pincher when he was a Foreign Office minister, the former permanent secretary at the Foreign Office said, however the then-PM denied he'd heard any allegations against the Tamworth MP before appointing him to the front bench.

This precipitated dozens of members of government resigning, before eventually Johnson followed suit. Since resigning from the government, Pincher had the whip removed but stayed on as MP for more than a year, raking in the £86,000 annual salary.

He had sought to reduce the potentially by-election triggering eight-week suspension recommended by the Commons Standards Committee for what was found to be an “egregious case of sexual misconduct”, but Parliament’s Independent Expert Panel (IEP) dismissed his appeal.

Pincher had a majority of more than 19,000 in 2019, however the bookies think Labour could take this - in what would be a huge swing.

Rishi Sunak's trip to Israel and the wider Middle East means he will be out of the country when the results of the by-elections come in early on Friday morning.

Sunak will hold talks with the country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and President Isaac Herzog as he starts a two-day trip that is expected to take in a number of capitals in the region.

My colleague Isabella Boneham, who is covering the count at Tamworth tonight, visited the Staffordshire town ahead of today's election to see what the mood was like. And she found voters who were unhappy with politicians:

I travelled to Tamworth’s high street on Monday (16 October) to understand how local people are feeling about the town’s upcoming by-election and what they want to see from their next MP. Walking down the high street at around 10am, there were few people around and I could see some shops had closed down leaving empty buildings.

Some building work was going on with one resident telling me it is going to be a new Nationwide, which he hoped would maybe bring more shoppers into the town. He said Tamworth is like “a ghost town” now and he would rather shop further afield in Lichfield. He was not impressed, and not impressed with his former MP Chris Pincher either.

He said the MP, who resigned last month after he groped two men last year, “didn’t leave a good taste in the mouth” and it has made him lose “a bit of confidence”. However, he said he will still vote Conservative in the by-election to give the party “another chance”’.

A lot of locals I talked to were very much not impressed with Pincher and rightly so. A lot seemed very fed up with politicians altogether - there was not one person who had a good thing to say, apart from one woman who said she had “faith” in the Labour party. Another said she was just voting Conservative because she always had - and her husband would vote for himself instead if he could.

Voters in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire still have just under seven hours left to vote for their next MP. But who will they be choosing between?

In Tamworth, there are nine candidates vying to replace Christ Pincher. These are:

In Mid Bedfordshire, there are 13 people hoping to take Nadine Dorries' place as MP. These are:

Good evening, there are just over two hours until polls close in the two key by-elections. It's been a wet and windy day so hopefully that hasn't put off voters, although by-elections always have lower turnout.

The first key time to look out for is 10pm which is when polls close - and we'll get a better idea of how the parties are feeling. The first result is expected to come in at around 1.30pm in Mid Bedfordshire, which is the count I'm covering. My colleague Isabella Boneham may have to wait until 3.30pm for the result in Tamworth, so plenty of coffee for Isabella.

The races are expected to be close, so I wouldn't rule out recounts at either.

While we're waiting with baited breath for voters in Staffordshire and Bedfordshire to get to the polls we'll cover off some of the other main stories.

Rishi Sunak has arrived in Saudi Arabia for the second leg of his Middle East tour that included a visit to Israel, where he was told to brace for a “long war” with Hamas. Sunak is set to meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this evening as he urges leaders in the region not to allow the Israeli-Hamas battle escalate into a wider conflict.

He travelled from Tel Aviv after meetings with Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and president Isaac Herzog. Netanyahu told Sunak that he hoped for the UK’s “continuous support” as it fights back against Hamas following the Palestinian militant group’s deadly and unprecedented assault on Israel on 7 October.

Probably not the news the government was hoping to come out on polling day in two key by-elections.

Collapse-prone concrete has been found in 43 more schools in England, bringing the total number affected to 217, my colleague Imogen Howse reports.

The Department for Education (DfE) announced the update to the long-running saga around reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) on Thursday (19 October), renewing fears around disruption to the education of pupils who have already had to suffer through the pandemic and teacher strikes.

In a statement following the new figure of affected schools, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan said: "I want to reassure all pupils, parents, and staff that this government is doing whatever it takes to support our schools and colleges in responding to RAAC and minimise disruption to education."

However, some remained unconvinced, with Daniel Kebede, NEU general secretary, remarking: "The reluctance to publish on time speaks volumes, demonstrating that there is a failure at the heart of government to take seriously the various crises facing education. It should not have to fall to the NEU to chase the DfE for information they pledged to regularly provide.”

Read Imogen's full story here.

More bad news that the government hoped wouldn't come out on by-election day - 18 more hospital sites have been identified as having RAAC (see below).

Labour's Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting has wasted no time, saying: "Now the full extent of RAAC in hospitals has been exposed, the Government's inaction is even more damning.

"The Conservatives must be clear about their plan to fix this crisis. Patients deserve to know if they are at risk from hospitals in need of urgent repairs.

"The Tories literally did not fix the roof when the sun was shining, and now patients have to make do with crumbling hospitals for years to come. Only Labour can restore the NHS to good health and make it fit for the future."

The third round of by-election bad news -government advisers referred to Rishi Sunak as “Dr Death” during the pandemic, PA reports.

The inquiry also heard that putting the country into full lockdown to mitigate the impact of the virus was a “necessary evil”.

WhatsApp messages shown to the Covid-19 Inquiry between epidemiologist Professor John Edmunds and Professor Dame Angela McLean – now chief scientific adviser to the Government – took place during a meeting in September 2020.

Dame Angela messaged Prof Edmunds, referring to “Dr Death the Chancellor”, the inquiry was told.

Prof Edmunds told the inquiry the reference “could well be” about the Eat Out To Help Out scheme, which was devised by then-chancellor Sunak and deployed a month earlier in a bid to kick-start the restaurant industry following lockdown.

Asked about the “public impact” of Eat Out To Help Out, Prof Edmunds said: “To be honest, it made me angry.”

He said the Government had been “taking the foot off the brake” in easing restrictions but “to put the foot on the accelerator” seemed “perverse”.

In response to seeing the WhatsApp messages, Naomi Fulop, a spokeswoman for Covid-19 Bereaved Families For Justice UK, said the inquiry “has made clear that there was absolutely no consultation with the Government’s scientific advisers on Eat Out To Help Out”.

The polls have closed in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth. I'm in the smart Central Bedfordshire Council offices, where the count is happening for Mid Beds - and the rain is getting heavier. However we won't be getting a result for at least another three hours. If you're staying up with me put another coffee on.

Now that the polls have closed we'll hear from the parties, who will have some idea of how well they've done from canvassing and getting out the vote through the day.

Labour appear to be trying to dampen down expectations. National Campaign Coordinator Pat McFadden said: “Our candidates and their teams in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire have worked extraordinarily hard to put Labour in the race for what are usually safe Tory seats.

“Our campaigns have focused ruthlessly on the issues that matter to local people: tackling crime, bringing down NHS waiting lists and addressing the cost of living. We’ve spoken to thousands of local people who are fed up with this chaotic, distracted Tory Party that does nothing but lurch from crisis to crisis.

 “But we have known all along that winning these seats would be a long shot, with huge majorities to overturn. The fact that we are even on the pitch is a sign of how far the Labour Party has changed. We are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back.”  

It's a double dose of expectation management, with a Tory spokesperson saying: “These were always going to be challenging by-elections and the rule of thumb is that governments don’t win them.

“We have seen little to no enthusiasm for Sir Keir Starmer who voters can see stands for nothing and always puts short term political gain first.

“It is clear that we have to maintain our focus on people’s immediate priorities whilst taking long-term decisions which will lead to the change this country needs.”

The Lib Dems seem to be making similar noises to the Tories and Labour - come on guys, someone has to win these by-elections. Christine Jardine MP said: “Whatever the outcome, it is clear that the Lib Dem vote has surged in true blue villages across Bedfordshire, as former lifelong Conservative voters choose to send this government a message.

“I am bursting with pride at the campaign Emma Holland-Lindsay has run, which has offered Mid-Bedfordshire a positive and inspiring vision for change. Emma has rolled up her sleeves, ran constituency surgeries whilst the absent Conservative MP was nowhere to be found, and already begun the work of helping local people who have felt badly let down.

“Both Emma Holland-Lindsay in Mid-Bedfordshire and Sunny Virk in Tamworth have stood up for their communities against this out of touch Conservative government. They have done our party and our country’s democracy proud.”

At the Mid Bedfordshire by-election count and it feels like it's going to be a tight race. A Lib Dem source tells me: "I've no idea how it's going to go. We know we've taken a lot of Tory votes in the villages. It feels like Labour's support has hardened in the towns."

This is a rare three-way race between the main parties in a very rural seat. Flitwick, which one of the biggest towns in the constituency, has a population of just 10,000. The fact that Labour is competitive here shows that party is doing well nationally, but also speaks to the unpopularity of Nadine Dorries.

In Mid Bedfordshire, ballot boxes are currently being ferried into the count room - however we've been told the result won't be until 1.30am at the earliest.

Talking to one party insider, they think it could be much later, and there's a chance it could go to a recount if it's really close. So the 1.30am result time could be optimistic.

In Tamworth, the result isn't expected until 3.30am to 4am. Perhaps they're just a bit more realistic than Mid Bedfordshire.