Cost of living main priority for Nottinghamshire voters as Reform UK still lead polls
Reform UK is on course to form a majority government at the next General Election thanks to a groundswell of support in Nottinghamshire, a new poll has revealed.
A new MRP poll of over 7,400 people, part of the quarterly Road to 2029 research run by communications firm PLMR and Electoral Calculus, shows Reform is set to secure 36% of the vote, ahead of Labour at 21% and the Conservatives at just 15%.
This would hand Farage 445 seats in Parliament and see the Conservatives come in fifth place - behind Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party - with a record low of just seven seats in Parliament.
However, emerging trends for tactical voting could stop Farage in his tracks, as a massive 78 seats could flip if voters co-ordinate. Shockingly, over a third of Labour voters say they would back the Tories to block Reform. Green and Your Party voters say they would also shift to vote Labour to avoid splitting the progressive vote.
Reform’s surge is especially strong in the East Midlands where the party is forecast to win 30 of the 32 parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire.
Twenty-two of these seats are projected to move from Labour to Reform and seven from the Conservatives to Farage’s party. Reform politician Lee Anderson is forecast to retain his Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire.
Going by the poll, Leicester West MP Liz Kendall, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, is one of many Labour MPs set to become high-profile casualties of Reform’s rise.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband,Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, all risk losing their constituencies to Reform.
The seven Conservative politicians in the East Midlands set to lose their seats to Farage’s party include Newark MP Robert Jenrick, Shadow Secretary of State for Justice, and South Leicestershire MP Alberto Costa, Chair of the Standards Committee.
The economy and the cost of living emerged in the new MRP poll as a top priority for the Government to address in the Autumn budget, with 59% of voters demanding action.
This is higher than the number of voters who ranked immigration (51%) and the NHS (45%) as a top priority as voters continue to be concerned by the cost of their weekly food shop.
Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said: “This latest poll highlights a vast change to the two-party dominance we’re so used to in British politics and serves as another wake-up call, were it needed, to Keir Starmer and the Labour Party. It also demonstrates the importance for all parties to build relationships and trust with the UK electorate after such a fractious period.
“The poll highlights just how dramatically the political landscape in the East Midlands could shift at the next General Election. The East Midlands has always been a political bellwether, and these results suggest it will once again play a decisive role in shaping the next government.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "This poll underscores just how volatile the political landscape has become. There are two big changes at the moment, but they point in different directions. Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform's poll lead isn't as good as it looks, as the party could lose dozens of seats because many voters will vote for any candidate without a light-blue rosette. However, the emergence of 'Your Party' further fragments the left-of-centre vote, and makes things easier for Reform UK and harder for Labour.
"Ahead of the Autumn Budget in November, voters are making their priorities clear, placing the economy, immigration and the NHS at the top of the agenda. Labour now faces a fight for votes, and their ability to act decisively and deliver on these priorities will determine whether the party can defend its leadership or risk falling further behind as Reform seeks to solidify its gains."