Reform’s surge is rampant in the East Midlands, new poll reveals
Almost one year since the General Election, a new poll has revealed Reform UK is on course to form a majority government, thanks to a meteoric rise in the East Midlands.
The MRP poll of over 5,000 British adults, conducted by leading communications agency PLMR and Electoral Calculus, reveals that if a General Election were held tomorrow, Reform UK would secure 31% of the national vote, compared to 22% for Labour and 19% for the Conservatives.
Based on constituency-level voting intention, this would result in 377 seats for Reform UK, up from just five in the last election. Labour would fall from 412 to 118 seats, while the Conservatives are predicted to collapse to just 29 seats, trailing behind the Liberal Democrats on 69 seats.
This would see Nigel Farage become Prime Minister without the need for any parliamentary coalition or alliances. Even if all the other parties joined forces, they would not have enough seats to prevent Farage walking into Number Ten.
Reform’s surge is especially rampant in the East Midlands where the party is currently forecast to win 30 of the 32 parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire. Twenty-three of these seats are projected to move from Labour to Reform and six from the Conservatives to Farage’s party. Reform politician Lee Anderson is forecast to retain his Ashfield seat in Nottinghamshire.
These latest findings mark an historic acceleration in the reshaping of Britain’s political landscape, with issue-based voter priorities superseding traditional party loyalties.
Economic insecurity remains the number one factor, with 54% of voters citing the cost of living and the economy as the main driver of their voting intention. This is closely followed by the NHS (46%) and immigration (38%).
Among Reform UK voters specifically, the importance of addressing the economy and immigration concerns become even more stark, with 57% citing fears around the cost of living, and an overwhelming 83% citing immigration as the biggest influencer in their votes.
This highlights the need for the Government and Conservative party to cut through on these issues in order to win back support from voters who want action on cost of living pressures and border control.
The sharp decline in vote share for both the Labour and Conservative parties also points to a profound realignment of voters and the growing appeal of Reform UK’s message among economically left-leaning, but culturally conservative voters.
Reform UK’s dominance is clear in post-industrial and coastal areas, as well as suburban constituencies where economic anxiety and immigration have overshadowed traditional party allegiances.
Notably, voters who expect their personal financial situation to worsen are more likely to support Reform UK and express distrust in existing political leaders. Meanwhile, those who remain optimistic about their finances are more likely to lean towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
Kevin Craig, PLMR’s CEO and Founder, commented:
“We’ve got four years ahead of us until the next General Election. Reform UK’s continued popularity certainly points to widespread frustration with the status quo, but the Labour government needs to hold its nerve, only a year into power. We see from PLMR’s polling that the economy, the NHS and immigration are the top three priorities for voters. The government has a story to tell on all three.
“We are starting to see economic conditions stabilise after a chaotic few years under the Conservatives, on immigration, enforced returns are up 24 per cent to over 4,300 since July and NHS waiting times have hit a two-year low.
“Reform will have a record on bins and potholes in local government to defend over the coming years, so what Reform in power looks like will no longer be an abstract concept. When it comes to crunch time for voters, they’ll want a serious, experienced government that’s proven it can handle the issues that matter to people’s lives.”
Lee Corden, Director of PLMR Advent, based in the Midlands, said:
“As a business, we’ve been undertaking this polling to gain genuine sentiment among the electorate across the region – and the whole country.
“Since our last set of polling data, we’ve seen Reform pick up several council seats across the region, reflecting what our previous surveys had been telling us.
“It will be interesting to see how the data shapes up over the coming months, despite the fact that we are still some way off a General Election.”
Martin Baxter, Founder of Electoral Calculus, said:
"This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon. The 'big two' established parties now only command the support of 41% of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.
“If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform. As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front."