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Published Date: 31 July 2008
Queens Park Rangers have been all the rage in the ante-post market for this season's Championship ever since the high profile takeover of the club by Flavio Briatore, Bernie Ecclestone and the Mittal Family.
The R's head the majority of lists and are as short as 5/1 to be crowned Champions next May with Boylesports.

Yet, the Championship is a notoriously difficult division to escape from and quotes of around 6/4 about promotion seem a tad skinny even
with the backing of some of the world's richest men.

Let's face it, on what we saw last season, Rangers aren't nearly as strong as some of their rivals and should struggle in their battle for promotion.

In the last eight years, only four teams out of 78 (5.1%) have overcome a negative goal difference from their previous Championship campaign to attain promotion (compared to 15 of 66, 22.7%) of those with a non-negative goal difference.

Also, in the last 12 seasons, over half (19/36) of the promoted teams from the Championship have come from the teams that were relegated from the Premiership the season before and those that missed out in the play-offs.

When you include the teams that finished just outside the play-off spots (7th-9th) in the previous campaign, the promoted figure rises to nearly 70%. Considering teams in QPR's position account for just 14% of promoted sides in that time (none of them as Champions), Iain Dowie's side look to be up against it.

It is true that after making £3.85m of January transfers last season (the most in the league), QPR's performance did improve.

They went W7-D9-L10 before the window opened - and were in 18th - before finishing W7-D7-L6 and moving up to 14th by the season's end.

However, that record (1.4 points per game) after the signings was still just the 10th best in the division over that period and a fair amount short of the 6th best team in that time (Wolves, 1.65 PPG).

Punters and QPR fans alike have been expecting a wave of high profile signings for some time and they have yet to materialize. With around a fortnight to go until the start of the new season, it's time to question whether these big names will actually arrive and whether the market has over reacted to the news of the takeover. I would recommend laying them to win promotion at 2.75 on Betdaq (essentially, betting that they won't get promoted). Spread bettors are also advised to sell (bet lower) their season points tally at 71.5 with Sporting Index.



Glorious Goodwood is already well and truly underway and it may pay to side with Barry Hills' Prime Defender in Saturday's Stewards Cup.

He's 9lbs 'well in' after running a cracker in the July Cup and as long as the draw is kind to him, has to be supported at 10/1 with Boylesports.

For those of you looking for a punt today, I'm willing to take one more chance with Sir Michael Stoute's Lang Shining at 12/1 in the Totesport Mile.

This colt has bucketloads of potential and even though he has disappointed in both of his last two runs, his trainer is a master at changing horse's fortunes.

Bill Esdaile has written for the Racing Post, Sportsman, Sporting Life and the Smart Gambler. He had a weekly column in the Daily Telegraph during the World Cup and has previewed major betting events for the Financial Times, Shares Magazine and the Business.





The full article contains 601 words and appears in n/a newspaper.
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  • Last Updated: 31 July 2008 11:37 AM
  • Source: n/a
  • Location: Mansfield
 
 
  

 
 


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