Bill Esdaile has written for the Racing Post, Sportsman, Sporting Life and the Smart Gambler. He had a weekly column in the Daily Telegraph during the World Cup and has previewed major betting events for the Financial Times, Shares Magazine and the Business.
The 2008 Open Golf Championship gets underway tomorrow, just down the road at Royal Birkdale in Southport. The absence of Tiger from the field means that everyone feels they have a genuine chance of winning – and the betting most certainly reflects t
hat. Sergio Garcia is the 10/1 favourite with Boylesports and he will be aiming to cap an unbelievable month of sporting achievement for Spain. He was so close to winning last year and with his victory at the 'fifth major' at Sawgrass recently, it is easy to see why he is favourite.
Looking at the stats and it really does appear to be very difficult for the European players. Only two have won this famous event since Nick Faldo became the last Englishman to win it 16 years ago at Muirfield. The Americans have a tremendous record, winning 10 of the last 13 tournaments, and even though Tiger isn't here, it is surprising to see that three of the first five in the betting are European. This is further compounded by the abysmal record Brits and Europeans have at Royal Birkdale. The north-west club has held eight Open Championships in its history – the last being in 1998 – and no European has ever won here. The USA again call the shots with five victories, whilst the Aussies have picked up three.
It really is, excuse the pun, as open an Open as I can remember, which means there is always an opportunity for some excellent value. My strategy at these kinds of events is to pick four or five big priced players each-way and hope one or two of them sneak into a place – or obviously one of them goes on to win it. Sergio is simply too short for an event like this and I would be much happier to lay him for a place with Betdaq. For those of you who haven't dabbled in the exchanges, laying means that you are, in effect, becoming the bookmaker and predicting that he will lose. He does have a strong record at the Open, but with the additional pressure of favouritism, I could see him struggle and he looks perfect lay material at the prices.
Boylesports are offering ¼ the odds the first seven places at this year's Open, which won't be bettered anywhere else you look. My first recommendation for an each-way punt is Jim Furyk at 25/1. The 2003 US Open winner came back to form with a decent third place finish last time out and can better his fourth place at this course in 1998. Anthony Kim is another American at a decent price and the 23 year-old looks a real star and has already picked up two big wins Stateside this year. If he handles the unique course, the 45/1 Boylesports offer is far too big to miss. Two other Americans I like the look of are Steve Stricker at around 75/1 and Boo Weekly at 100/1 – have an each-way saver on both of them. Finally, if Spain are to have the ultimate sporting summer, I'd be much more interested in backing Miguel Angel Jimenez at 33/1 than Sergio. He performed very well at the Scottish Open last week and he could prove to be the 'Matador of Southport'.
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